Hong Kong’s budget boosts confidence with concrete plans, mainland’s support

The financial chief of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR) on Wednesday unveiled the budget plan for 2024-25, outlining concrete measures to bolster confidence and create favorable conditions for the regional economy amid a complex global geo-economic situation. 

The plan, which emphasizes attracting strategic enterprises and supporting the property and stock markets, among other goals, aims to leverage the HKSAR's greatest advantage with the solid backing of the central government and its connectivity to the world. Such an advantage means a bright outlook for the city in the long run, experts said. 

When introducing the budget, HKSAR Financial Secretary Paul Chan Mo-po noted a difficult economic environment amid intensifying geopolitical tensions and the rise of unilateralism and protectionism as well as fierce competition, but he also painted a bright picture for the region's development. 

"Hong Kong's economic outlook is bright. Despite a host of prevailing challenges, we will find infinite opportunities ahead, as long as we stay on top of global trends and dare to explore," Chan said, while focusing the budget on bolstering confidence and supporting people and enterprises, among other priorities. 

To boost confidence, Chan announced plans to attract enterprises, capital and talent on all fronts. He revealed that more than 10 strategic enterprises are expected to sign a partnership agreement with the HKSAR to set up or expand their businesses in the region. Together with the 30 companies from the first batch, they would bring about $40 billion of investment to Hong Kong, creating about 13,000 jobs over the next few years. 

These moves reflect the importance the HKSAR attaches to attracting major businesses and talents, which are crucial for the region's development, said Liang Haiming, chairman of the China Silk Road iValley Research Institute. 

"The efforts and measures in the budget show that the HKSAR government deeply understands that attracting enterprises to settle in Hong Kong is an important factor in promoting economic growth and increasing employment opportunities," Liang told the Global Times on Wednesday, adding that the HKSAR has significant advantages in the technological and financial sectors to attract businesses.

Another major takeaway from the budget plan was concrete moves to boost the region's property and stock markets. The budget announced the immediate cancellation of all demand-side management measures for residential properties, including the Special Stamp Duty, the Buyer Stamp Duty and the New Residential Stamp Duty. It also pledged to explore measures to enhance the listing regime, improve transaction mechanisms, boost investor services, step up market promotion and so on.

The budget also puts heavy emphasis on tapping opportunities from the solid backing of the central government and its connectivity with the rest of the world. 

"By leveraging Hong Kong's institutional advantages and our connectivity with the Chinese mainland and the rest of the world under the 'one country, two systems' principle, we will certainly be able to seize the opportunities coming our way," Chan said. "More importantly, our country's focus on promoting high-quality development will provide Hong Kong with ample room to grow."

Notably, the budget forecasts that the HKSAR economy will grow by an average of 3.2 percent a year in real terms from 2025 to 2028, with the underlying inflation rate expected to average 2.5 percent. The region's economy grew by 3.2 percent in 2023, with the inflation rate coming in at 1.7 percent.

"Hong Kong's space for development and advantages are very significant with the support from the development of the motherland and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA)," Cong Yi, a professor at the Tianjin University of Finance and Economics, told the Global Times on Wednesday. 

Cong said that the GBA development plan has enabled the hinterland to be better used to support the development of Hong Kong, while allowing Hong Kong to support the national coordinated development strategy.

The national 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-25), which positions the HKSAR as "eight centers" in the fields of finance, trade, shipping, aviation, legal and dispute resolution, innovation, intellectual property trading and artistic and cultural exchanges, also helps the region's international competitiveness, he said.

Airbus says sorry for banning Chinese attendees' visits at Singapore Airshow, pledges to optimize procedure

France-based aircraft manufacturer Airbus said on Sunday night it was sorry about an incident at the Singapore Airshow, as some Chinese visitors said that they were banned from visiting an A400M transport aircraft.

"We are aware that during the Public Day of the 2024 Singapore Airshow, some visitors raised questions about access to an A400M transport aircraft. We immediately communicated and coordinated with the customer and our Airbus teams at the show to ensure that the aircraft was open to all visitors for the remainder of the airshow," Airbus said in a statement to the Global Times.

"We are sorry for any inconvenience this may have caused," Airbus added.

Airbus told the Global Times that Chinese visitors could board and visit the aircraft freely from Saturday afternoon.

The remark was made via Airbus' official account on Chinese Sina Weibo, an X-like social media, in regard to some netizens saying that an Airbus-built military transport plane affiliated with the German air force was displayed at the Singapore Airshow and Chinese attendees were banned pay on-board visits.

A Chinese netizen named "Qianzhan Qifei" posted on Sina Weibo on Saturday that stationed in front of the A400M transport plane were soldiers from the German army and Airbus staff. They asked the passengers who were queuing up for the tour about their nationality and said that "Chinese and Russian nationals are not allowed to board the plane."

Another Sina Weibo user named "PLAN-DDG172" also posted about a similar situation, and said the German soldiers on board physically attacked him. He sent a letter of complaint to the organizer of the Singapore Airshow.

The Chinese netizen named "Qianzhan Qifei" said that he captured footage of Airbus staff violently driving him away in front of the camera.

There was also a video clip that went viral on WeChat, which was about an attendee asking the staff member whether Chinese nationals could go on board the aircraft, and the staff member said no.

A Sina Weibo user named "Tianhuile Qing Biyan 128" said the move made Chinese aviation fans feel regret and disgust.

Some netizens commented under the video clips that orders for the Airbus aircraft should be canceled and China should instead foster homegrown aircraft.

Two C919 and three ARJ 21 jets, which were developed by Commercial Aircraft Corp of China (COMAC), debuted at the Singapore Airshow.

Chinese experts said that the large-scale participation showcased China's strong confidence in its commercial aircraft. China is able to manufacture and start the market operation of domestic commercial aircraft.

A total of four C919 jets have been delivered and safely carried more than 110,000 passengers since the plane made its maiden commercial flight on May 28, 2023. Mass production and the development of the series are both going smoothly, per the COMAC statement.

Chinese experts also said that this year will be a key period to speed up mass production and deliveries of the C919, and for COMAC to integrate the industry, supply and innovation chains for the airliner while expanding in the overseas market.

Airbus has always been committed to being a long-term reliable partner of the Chinese aviation industry, the company said in a statement to the Global Times, adding that its expanding industrial footprint around the country fully demonstrates its respect and commitment to China.

"We commit to win-win cooperation with China's aviation industry and will continue to work with its Chinese partners to promote the high-quality development of China's aviation industry, meanwhile setting a role model for economic and trade exchanges between China and Europe while building bridges of communication between the two sides," it noted.

China, US in talks to ease countries’ debt; experts said the move could lead to a new breakthrough in cooperation

China and the US have maintained communication through bilateral and multilateral channels on debt issues, and China is willing to work with all sides to continue making efforts to ease the debt of developing countries, Mao Ning, spokesperson of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China, said on Friday.

The remarks were made in response to reports on the two countries' discussion on new measures to prevent a wave of emerging market sovereign debt defaults.

Chinese experts said that the bilateral cooperation over this debt issue could potentially lead to a new breakthrough in cooperation between China and the US, especially as the bilateral relations were often characterized by confrontation rather than cooperation due to US targeted policy.

Speaking at a regular press conference on Friday, Mao said that as a matter of principle, China has always attached great importance to the debt issue of developing countries. Adhering to the principles of equality, consultation, cooperation, and mutual benefit, China has consistently worked to help alleviate the debt burden of developing countries and promote sustainable development, the spokesperson said.

China has actively participated in initiatives such as the G20 Debt Service Suspension Initiative and other cooperative frameworks, she added.

According to Bloomberg's report on Friday, the US and China are discussing new measures to prevent a wave of emerging market sovereign defaults, citing people familiar with the matter, a move that the media described as "one of the most significant attempts in years at economic cooperation" between the two countries.

The talks - including ways to pre-emptively extend loan periods before countries miss payments - are broadly aimed at both easing the $400 billion-plus annual debt service burden for poor countries and finding an alternative to the high borrowing rates those nations now face in the market, according to the media report.

Cooperation between China and the US on the debt issue not only helps to reduce the risk of defaults in developing countries but also sends a stronger signal to the global market on the urgent need of recovery from the pandemic, Zhou Mi, a senior research fellow at the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation, told the Global Times on Friday.

Both China and the US share common responsibilities and interests on this issue. A major upheaval in global finance could have significant negative implications for the economies of both countries and global development as a whole, Zhou said.

The cooperation would include alleviating repayment pressure on debts and avoiding concentrated debt maturity, Zhou said.

While both China and the US are major financial markets and therefore hold responsibilities in helping to tackle the debt issue of developing countries, experts said that the US is more important regarding this matter due to its greater obligations, given the fact that the surge in defaults in emerging markets is related to the US Federal Reserve's relentless interest rate hikes.

Due to the generally fragile nature of emerging market economies, their relatively simplistic industrial structures and lower resilience to risks, they are much more vulnerable in the face of the Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate hikes, Hu Qimu, a deputy secretary-general of the digital-real economies integration Forum 50, told the Global Times on Friday.

Against this context, the US has more responsibilities and obligations from a historical perspective, while China's efforts in helping to tackle the debt issue are more about risk prevention and control, and its commitment to helping developing countries achieve sustainable development as the world's second largest economy, Hu said.

China and the US have intensified interactions recently in economic sectors. The third China-US Economic Working Group meeting was held recently in Beijing, where officials of the two countries had in-depth, candid, pragmatic and constructive exchanges on the macroeconomic situation and policies, G20 financial cooperation, debt of developing countries, industrial policies and other issues, according to a statement by the Chinese Ministry of Finance on February 2.

Experts said that this positive trend offers much-needed reassurance for businesses in the two countries as well as the international community, amid rising global challenges.

The bilateral cooperation in tackling the debt issue could potentially result in a new breakthrough in cooperation between China and the US, experts said.

In recent years, economic and trade cooperation between China and the US has been characterized by a predominance of confrontation, failing to reach consensus in the economic domain, Hu said.

The significance of reaching consensus between the two major economies in this matter lies not only in the issue itself but also highlights cooperation in broader economic sectors such as interest rates, exchange rates and credit projects, in addition to traditional areas such as climate cooperation and counter-terrorism, according to Hu.

Despite the disagreements between the two countries over some key matters such as technology, we should actively seek cooperation when necessary and not let differences deter us from collaboration, Zhou said, noting that "failing to cooperate would be detrimental to all parties involved."

Western media’s coverage of China’s economy is inaccurate, biased

After China announced its economy grew 5.2 percent in 2023, some overseas media outlets claimed that China's economic recovery was sluggish and largely disappointing. However, these pessimistic views, prevalent in the Western media, are biased and inaccurate.

Bearing the impact of the three-year COVID pandemic, the Chinese economy still faced lingering side-effects of it in 2023, with the pandemic's scarring effect severely weakened market confidence. During the meeting of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee held in late July last year, the policymakers emphasized that the country's economic recovery was undergoing "wave-like" development.

Looking back, the market's expectations at the end of 2022 were overly optimistic. China set a GDP growth target of about 5 percent in early 2023, which was a more rational and reasonable approach. The Chinese economy successfully surpassed that target.

China's GDP growth rate has continued to increase despite the global economic downturn. While the global economy is expected to experience a slowdown last year to 3.0 growth, compared with 3.5 percent in 2022, China's growth rate increased from 3 percent in 2022 to 5.2 percent in 2023. This was a remarkable achievement that required overcoming external pressures and internal challenges.

China's economic growth rate remains relatively higher than other countries like the US. And, China is not the only country facing a slowdown in growth - lower than pre-pandemic levels. 

Despite the global economic slump, China is still able to achieve a moderate to high growth rate of about 5 percent, which plays an important role in stabilizing the global economy. China's contribution to global economic growth last year was still about 30 percent, demonstrating that China remains an important driving force of the global growth.

China has aimed to actively cultivate new growth drivers through technological innovation, green development and data-enabled transformation. Despite the overall decline in exports last year, exports of the "New Three Items" grew rapidly, exceeding the 1 trillion yuan ($140 billion) mark.

China has achieved similar growth in other fields. From an industrial perspective, the value-added growth rate of high-tech industries is eye-catching. From an investment perspective, the investment growth rate in the high-tech manufacturing and services industries was higher than that in fixed-asset investment. Additionally, China has achieved international competitive advantages in many industrial fields, such as in green and renewable energies.

In 2024, the Chinese economy will benefit from several favorable conditions. First, with the further weakening of the pandemic impacts, China can expect economic and social activities to return to a normal level. This will stimulate continued growth in consumption and investment, and contribute to expanding the scale of the economy.

Second, the implementation of fiscal and monetary stimulus policies will continue to provide the necessary support for stabilizing economic growth and promoting the recovery. The Central Economic Work Conference made it clear that macroeconomic regulation will be intensified.

Third, China's plan to implement reform and opening-up measures in key areas will inject new vitality into economic growth. Technological innovation and the next industrial revolution will become new driving forces for economic development.

If China follows the deployment of decisions by the Central Economic Work Conference, promotes high-quality development and intensifies structural adjustments while maintaining necessary policy support, there will be positive momentum for the economic recovery.

However, China should also recognize that the complexity, severity and uncertainty of the external environment in 2024 still exist. From a positive perspective, the US Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes are nearing an end and there is the possibility of rate cuts, which will expand the space for China's macroeconomic policies and encourage European and US companies to replenish their inventories, improving overseas demand for Chinese goods.

In addition, ongoing high-level exchanges and dialogue between China and the US will help control their tensions.

However, China should be aware of the economic uncertainties, especially in the late stage of the US Federal Reserve's tightening cycle. Insufficient tightening may lead to the Fed reconsidering rate hikes, while excessive tightening may cause a hard landing for the US economy.

According to the World Trade Organization's forecast in October 2023, global merchandise trade growth may recover from 0.8 percent in 2023 to more than 3 percent in 2024. Therefore, China expects its foreign trade exports will likely recover and grow in 2024.

China experienced fluctuations in foreign enterprises' investment in 2023. However, fluctuations in foreign investment are normal, not only in China but also in other countries, including the US. 

Since total global foreign direct investment fell from 2020 to 2022, while China's attractiveness to foreign investment continued to steadily increase, it was not surprising to see some adjustments in scale in 2023. 

In addition, the impact of non-economic factors in reshaping global industrial and supply chains may have some influence on China's utilization of foreign investment.

China is still a growing economy with a colossal market, so it still has an appeal to foreign investment. With the normalization of communication and exchanges with the outside world, investors are paying more and more attention to China's market, and confidence in China's economic fundamentals keeps on recovering.

Pulse on China's Economy: Decline of China’s industrial profits narrows further in 2023, underscoring resilience and recovery

Profits of China's major industrial enterprises fell 2.3 percent in 2023, continuing a month-on-month narrowing that began in March, an ongoing recovery that underscores the resilience of the Chinese economy, experts said.

In 2023, the profits of industrial companies whose annual main business revenue exceeded 20 million yuan ($2.82 million) stood at 7.69 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 2.3 percent, narrowing by 2.1 percentage points from the first 11 months of last year, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released on Saturday.

State-owned enterprises achieved total profits of 2.26 trillion yuan in 2023, down 3.4 percent year-on-year, while private enterprises had total profits of 2.34 trillion yuan, up 2 percent, NBS data showed.

With domestic demand improving gradually and industrial production picking up steadily, the profitability of large-scale industrial enterprises has continued to recover, further consolidating the foundation for high-quality development of the industrial economy, NBS statistician Yu Weining said in a statement on Saturday.

While the total profits of major industrial enterprises declined amid the multiple challenges at home and abroad, the narrowing trend has sent a positive signal that the Chinese economy is gradually overcoming various difficulties and stabilizing on an improving trend, Zhu Keli, executive director of China Institute of New Economy, told the Global Times on Saturday.

In terms of the moving trend of industrial profits throughout the year 2023, major industrial enterprises' profits saw a sharp narrowing of decline, given the year-on-year decrease of 22.9 percent in January-February, Yu said.

By quarter, the profit of industrial enterprises in the first quarter of 2023 fell by 21.4 percent year-on-year, with a 12.7 percent fall in the second quarter, before recording a 7.7 percent gain in the third quarter and a 16.2 percent increase in the fourth.

In December, profits of industrial enterprises rose by 16.8 percent year-on-year, growing for a fifth consecutive month, according to the NBS.

Overall, more than 60 percent of industries recorded profit gains in 2023. With the deepening industrial chain optimization and upgrading, the efficiency of the equipment manufacturing industry continues to improve, further strengthening its supporting role for the profit recovery of industrial enterprises, Yu said.

Specifically, due to the rapid rise in shipbuilding orders and the record high automobile production, the transport equipment industry saw profits jump by 22 percent year-on-year, while profits of the automobile industry increased 5.9 percent.

Against the backdrop of complex global economic changes, the recovering industrial profits reflected the tenacious resilience and innovation vitality of Chinese industries, Zhu noted.

Chinese industrial enterprises not only pay attention to short-term benefits, but also focus on the long-term development, constantly enhancing their core competitiveness and market adaptability by strengthening technological innovation and improving added value of products. Those efforts are gradually being translated into concrete economic benefits, offering a strong support for the recovery of industrial profits, according to Zhu.

"Industrial enterprises' performance has pointed to an overall trend that the Chinese economy is undergoing a continuous improvement," Xi Junyang, a professor at the Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, told the Global Times on Saturday.

With the continued policy support, the improvement in the operating conditions across the industrial sector is expected to continue in 2024, Xi said.

Despite facing multiple challenges, China's manufacturing industry has shown strong resilience in recent years, according to a report released on Saturday by the China Finance 40 Forum -- a Chinese think tank specializes on issues of economic and financial policy.

The report said that the growth rate of China's manufacturing sector investment has continued to be higher than the growth rate of the total capital investment and the GDP growth rate since 2020.

Meanwhile, the proportion of investment by private enterprises has further increased, and the manufacturing investment has been concentrating in industries such as electrical equipment, telecommunication and computing information.

The upgrading trajectory of China's manufacturing industry is consistent with the experience of high-income countries, said Zhang Bin, a senior CF40 researcher and deputy director of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences' Institute of World Economics and Politics.

A modern service industry is a necessary condition for the upgrade of the manufacturing industry as it is difficult to see the sustainability of manufacturing investment higher than a society's fixed asset investment, Zhang said.

Pulse on China’s Economy: Employment outlook positive as emerging industries offer more opportunities

China saw steady expansion of employment in 2023, with the emerging digital economy and technology sectors creating more opportunities for young job seekers, multiple industry insiders and enterprises have told the Global Times.

Despite the pessimistic picture painted by some foreign media reports, observers remained optimistic and confident in China’s employment situation, given the country’s efforts to stabilize the labor market as well as various favorable trends.

The emergence of cutting-edge technologies in the digital economy combined with new scenarios and sources of demand have brought more options and chances for young people, Li Qiang, vice-president of Zhaopin.com, told the Global Times in a recent interview.

Li noted that a diverse range of job opportunities have emerged with different entry levels, from the frontiers of digital technology to more basic jobs in expanding sectors such as artificial intelligence (AI).

Mexin Group, a door company based in Southwest China's Chongqing Municipality, told the Global Times on Monday that it has opened new positions and expanded hiring of AI engineers amid the development of its intelligent production.

The company hopes its AI engineers can integrate the technology into different applications and platforms, while carrying out new practices complying with various corporate projects, Mexin said in a statement.

Digital transformation has not only advanced the production and development patterns for enterprises in the manufacturing sector, but also provided growing potential and space for young job applicants, particularly in rising sectors such as industrial automation and new energy.

The proportion of jobs classified under the category of production, processing and manufacturing on Zhaopin.com increased from 15.3 percent in 2022 to 16.8 percent in 2023, with the growth rate ranking first among all industries. Meanwhile, the talent gap related to the energy-saving industry and new-energy vehicles is expected to reach 1.03 million people in 2025, according to data from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology.

In addition, Li said the digital economy has created more flexible jobs with higher job autonomy and lower entry barriers.

The number of newly registered drivers for on-demand delivery service provider Lalamove, also known as Huolala, increased by more than 70 percent in 2023, while the active drivers born in and after 1990 accounted for 30 percent of the total number, a yearly increase of 45 percent, the company told the Global Times on Tuesday.

Huolala said that 60 percent of their surveyed drivers born in and after 2000 chose to be cargo drivers due to the job’s flexibility, as they can pursue different passions such as being e-sports players and technicians at the same time.

The urban unemployment rate in China stood at 5.2 percent on average in 2023, down 0.4 percentage points year-on-year, official data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed last week, amid an overall improvement in employment.

The NBS also resumed the release of data for youth unemployment after a four-month suspension. The surveyed unemployment rate of the population aged 16 to 24 (excluding students) was 14.9 percent in December.

However, pressure is still persisting in 2024 given the structural contradictions for employment of some groups and in certain industries, said Kang Yi, a spokesperson for the NBS at a press conference on January 17.

Kang added that the employment situation will remain stable in 2024 thanks to the economic recovery, accelerated industrial upgrading and other positive factors such as supportive policies.

Li said that market confidence, bolstered by policy support taking further effect, has been rebounding, adding that the recovering confidence among enterprises is another positive factor for 2024.

Airbus opens service center for plane lifecycle in SW China’s Chengdu

France-based airplane manufacturer Airbus started operations at the Airbus Lifecycle Services Center in Chengdu, Southwest China's Sichuan Province on Wednesday, a latest example of aviation cooperation between China and France.

The center's opening came just days before Saturday, which will mark the 60th anniversary of diplomatic relations between China and France.

This center is the first of its kind to cover, as a one-stop shop, the full range of activities from aircraft parking and storage to maintenance, upgrades, conversions, dismantling and recycling services for various aircraft types, as well as the controlled distribution of used parts from dismantling, Airbus said. 

It plans to obtain overhaul qualifications and aircraft dismantling qualifications for Airbus A320/A330 within the year, and Boeing 737 maintenance qualifications are also expected. 

Covering a space of 717,000 square meters with storage capacity for 125 aircraft, the site will ramp up operations between now and 2025, directly employing up to 150 people, the company said.

The center unites under one roof a joint venture among Airbus, Tarmac Aerosave and the city of Chengdu, along with the Airbus company Satair. 

Located in the same center, Satair will acquire aging aircraft and trade and distribute the used parts to complete the full scope of lifecycle services. 

After storage and upgrading, 75 percent of the aircraft stored in the center are expected to fly again. The remaining planes will be dismantled with the unique Tarmac Aerosave process, recovering about 90 percent of the aircraft weight, the company said. 

It echoes our purpose to pioneer sustainable aerospace and shows our approach to environmental responsibility across the entire aircraft lifecycle, and the center is a great example of Chinese-European cooperation in the development of the circular economy for the aviation industry, said Cristina Aguilar, Airbus' senior vice president customer services.

The project is of special significance, when China is entering a new cycle of mass withdrawal of aircraft, with a large number of aircraft to be involved, and the project will play an important role in the circular economy, Lin Zhijie, an independent market watcher, told the Global Times. 

Chinese experts attributed the robust growth of aviation to the huge Chinese aviation market. 

Airbus predicted in December 2023 that China will overtake Europe and North America to become the world's largest aviation services market by 2042, with its market value climbing to $54.1 billion.

Aviation cooperation between China and France has seen sound development in recent years.

In June last year, China Southern Airlines, the carrier offering the largest annual air passenger capacity in China, said it would equip its new fleet of 96 A320neo planes with Thales' market-leading avionics solutions. This new agreement is a fitting testament to the extensive cooperation in the field of civil aviation between France and China. In the helicopter domain, Thales also partnered with Simaero to deliver China's first H225 level D Full Flight Simulator to China Sky-Wings training center in Shanghai, for improving the overall safety of Chinese helicopter pilots.

Thales has been present in China for more than 40 years. It has three joint ventures and employs 1,800 people with offices located in seven cities in China. 

In April 2023, Airbus signed a purchase agreement for 160 commercial aircraft with a Chinese partner, and it will open a second assembly line in North China's Tianjin Municipality, further expanding its presence in one of the largest aviation markets in the world.

During the ninth China-France High Level Economic and Financial Dialogue held in July 2023 in Beijing, China vowed to strengthen policy communication with France, deepen practical cooperation, step up coordination on international and multilateral affairs, and push the China-France comprehensive strategic partnership to a new high, according to the Xinhua News Agency.

China’s CPI declines caused by structural and cyclical factors; mild price rise expected in 2024: NBS

The year-on-year decline in China's Consumer Price Index (CPI) over recent months is caused by structural and cyclical factors, while core CPI remained stable excluding the impact of food and energy prices. It is anticipated that CPI will see a mild rise in 2024, a Chinese official said on Wednesday.

Prices have fallen in China lately, led by a retreat in the cost of food and energy. Excluding the impact of food and energy prices, core CPI has remained stable, suggesting that the decline in prices was not widespread or broad-based, but rather cyclical and structural, head of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) Kang Yi told a press conference in Beijing.

In 2023, China's overall prices remained on a moderate upward trend, with the annual CPI rising by 0.2 percent, and the core CPI increasing by 0.7 percent, Kang noted.

As for the structural factors, the decline in food and energy prices is not solely a result of changes in market supply and demand dynamics. In 2022 and 2023, their prices were primarily influenced by non-economic and unconventional factors, Kang said.

Energy prices, particularly those of petroleum, play a substantial role in the CPI basket in China. In December 2023, energy prices witnessed a 0.5 percent drop, in contrast to the 5.2 percent increase in December 2022. The significant rise in energy prices in 2022 followed by a decline in 2023, with one acting as a positive factor and the other as a negative factor, has exerted a considerable downward pull on the year-on-year CPI comparison, Kang explained.

As for food prices, there was a 3.7-percent drop in December 2023, contrasting with a 4.8-percent rise in December 2022. The increase in December 2022 was caused by pandemic-related measures, leading to logistical challenges and an across-the-board rise in food prices. As the economy returned to normal, accompanied by ample supply, food prices eased from the high baseline of the previous year, he said.

As the Chinese economy continues to recover on the back of steady growth in income levels and an expansion in domestic market demand, there is a foundation for upward movement of prices. As the Spring Festival holidays approach, demand for food spending is rising. Increased activity in service spending, such as dining out, visiting relatives and friends, and trave will further drive the seasonal rise in CPI, Kang said.

In the first 10 days of January 2024, monitored data indicates food prices have remained generally stable, experiencing mild increases in some regions, he said.

The low-level operation of prices also reflects, to some extent, issues such as insufficient market demand, Kang said, noting that it is a cyclical phenomenon in China as the economy returns to normalcy after three years of pandemic impact. "In the short term, inadequate demand can lead to downward pressure on prices."

China's CPI saw a year-on-year decrease of 0.2 percent in October 2023, followed by declines of 0.5 percent in November and 0.3 percent in December, NBS data showed.

During the key annual Central Economic Work Conference held in Beijing in December 2023, policymakers stressed the need to expand domestic demand, noting that "efforts should be made to stimulate consumption with potentials and expand productive investment to create a virtuous cycle of mutual promotion between consumption and investment."

"The development of digital consumption, green consumption and health consumption should be further promoted, and new growth areas such as consumption of smart home appliances, entertainment and tourism, sports events and trendy domestic brands should be fostered," the meeting noted.

With the introduction of relevant policies, the issue of insufficient market demand will ease. As a result, consumer prices will most likely stabilize and rebound. "We anticipate a mild increase in prices in 2024," Kang said.

Impossible to restore peace to the Red Sea via military means: Global Times editorial

US and UK fighter jets launched strikes against multiple targets in Yemen's capital Sanaa, the western Red Sea city of Al Hudaydah and the northern province of Saada on Friday local time. The situation in the Red Sea has seen a new round of increased tensions and faces the risk of further escalation.

The air strikes took place exactly one day after the United Nations Security Council passed a resolution regarding the situation in the Red Sea, giving the impression that the UN resolution gave the green light for the US and UK actions. It must be pointed out that this is an illusion. The US and the UK may have deliberately created and strengthened this illusion, but it is far from the truth. The resolution was proposed by the US and Japan and passed with a vote of 11 in favor to none against, with four abstentions. It demanded "that the Houthis immediately cease all such attacks, which impede global commerce and undermine navigational rights and freedoms as well as regional peace and security." Russia, China, Algeria and Mozambique abstained from the vote.

The Red Sea is an important international trade channel for goods and energy, and its stability is related to the common interests of the international community. China emphasized that "No country should misinterpret or abuse relevant provisions in this resolution to create new tensions in the Red Sea." Unexpectedly, what China was worried about became a reality the next day. After the attack, some US allies in the Middle East, including Jordan and Oman, expressed concern that the situation might get out of control. Yemen's neighbor Saudi Arabia also called for avoiding escalation of the situation. There is also a lot of opposition in the US. Nabeel Khoury, former deputy chief of mission at the US embassy in Yemen, said on X (formerly Twitter), "US/UK bombing campaign in Yemen is another failure of Biden diplomacy."

The current situation in the region is dire. A cease-fire between Palestine and Israel has not yet been achieved, and the spillover conflict in the Red Sea is further escalating and expanding. The Supreme Political Committee of the Houthi armed forces of Yemen claimed that all "interests" of the US and Britain are now "legitimate targets." Retaliation and harassment against the US and the UK will start another cycle of attacks, and multiple spillover conflicts are possible. In short, the possibility of the situation deteriorating has increased and deepened, and this outcome requires all parties to do their best to avoid it.

It needs to be said that the development of the situation to this point has been both accidental and inevitable. It is the US that has pushed the situation to the current stage step by step according to its own style and behavioral logic. The skewed stance of the US in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict has led to the conflict becoming protracted and caused spillovers. When dealing with Middle East issues, which are intertwined with contradictions and have complex historical latitudes, the US' strategy is thoughtless, even crude.

Military means is still the most familiar, preferred and convenient method for the US. It has been used in Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya and Syria and now against the Houthi armed forces in Yemen. The US has become quite dependent on it. Many bloody lessons have taught us that force as the main means cannot solve the problem, but instead makes the situation worse and more complicated. Ultimately, we have to return to the path of political settlement. The same is true for the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. China has repeatedly stressed the urgency of achieving an immediate cease-fire in Gaza, and it is the overriding prerequisite for everything else and a top priority for international diplomatic efforts.

Whether it is the current Red Sea crisis or the protracted conflict in Gaza, the real solution to the problem has always been clear, which is to immediately implement a cease-fire in Gaza. But for this core demand, the US currently does not have the courage to truly take supportive action. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has made four trips to the Middle East in three months. He has made so many trips, but he can't even say the word "instant cease-fire." If Washington continues on its current path, it will not solve the Middle East problem, but will become an active promoter of risk proliferation.

US defense officials said the strike was intended to thread the needle - pressing the Houthis to quit their attacks without spurring more conflicts in the volatile region. Threading the needle can be regarded as progress in US thinking, but can it achieve this via force? Can this restore peace in the Red Sea? The answer is obviously no.

Premier Li Qiang to attend the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2024, visit Switzerland and Ireland

At the invitation of Klaus Schwab, Founder and Executive Chairman of the World Economic Forum, Viola Amherd, President of the Swiss Confederation, and Leo Varadkar, Irish Taoiseach, Premier Li Qiang of the State Council will attend the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2024 and pay an official visit to Switzerland and Ireland from January 14 to 17: Chinese Foreign Ministry